MLB’s new rules: How pitch clock, shift ban, bigger bases will — and won’t — change the game
By Jayson
Stark The Athletic Sept 19, 2022
There’s
a thing I’ve noticed about sports: When you change the rules, stuff happens.
So
here we are, a week or so after baseball announced its three most tide-shifting rule changes in
almost half a century — pitch clock, shift limits and bases the size of the
tires on your Honda. And now here’s the safest prediction I’ve ever made:
Stuff
… will … happen.
But
what stuff? And how will — and won’t — it change the game? Here are 10 Things
to Watch When the Rules Change.
1. The 2 1/2-hour game is back
Baseball
has just fired its most accurate shot — aka., the 15-second pitch clock — in
the War on Dead Time. And before it even lands, you should know this: That war
is won.
“This thing is going to knock at least 20 minutes, I believe,
off the time of a game in the big leagues.” — Morgan Ensberg, former Astros third baseman,
who now manages the Rays’ Double-A team, the Montgomery Biscuits
Guess
what? There is zero reason to think he’s wrong. The average time of a
minor-league game is down 26 minutes this year, compared with the olden days of
the pre-pitch-clock era (by which we mean last year).
2021 — 3:04 (hours, minutes)
2022 — 2:38
Or
you could just compare a typical day of baseball in Triple A (home to a
14-second pitch clock) versus the big leagues. This was from last Wednesday.
|
TRIPLE A |
BIG LEAGUES |
|
|
9-inning games |
13 |
14 |
|
Average time |
2:44 |
3:00 |
|
Games over 3 hours |
2 |
7 |
|
Games under 2:40 |
7 |
1 |
Yes,
I’m aware the commercials mean the between-inning breaks aren’t the same in
both leagues. Yes, next year’s big-league clock will be a second longer than
this year’s Triple-A clock. Still …
•
An 8-7 big-league game in Texas, featuring 20 hits, took 3 hours, 40 minutes.
•
A 12-4 minor-league game in Nashville, featuring 24 hits, took 2 hours, 38
minutes.
I
could give you 500 examples like this, but you get the idea. Watch any
minor-league game on MiLB.com. You can’t miss the difference. The clock, Ensberg
said, is “absolutely incredible. It’s given more time to the game versus just
the fluff in between pitches. … What it does, it takes all the fluff out.”
Any
fluff fans out there? Thought so! Now let’s move on.
Baseball in 2023 will speed up, in more ways than one. (Cliff
Welch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
2. The balk record is in major jeopardy
On
the other hand … there are going to be issues!
There will be
wrinkles to the pitch clock that will take some getting used to. It’s not only
15 seconds between pitches with nobody on and 20 seconds with men on base. But
also …
The
hitter has to be in the box, eyes locked on the pitcher, with eight seconds
left on the timer (or the umpire can call a strike). … The pitcher needs to
start his delivery before the clock hits zero (or the umpire can call a ball).
… The hitter can step out only once per plate appearance (or it’s a strike). …
The pitcher can step off/throw to a base only twice per plate appearance (or
the third time is a balk, if he doesn’t throw to a base and the runner is out).
So
what can possibly go wrong? Ummm, paging Angel Hernandez.
Everyone
I’ve talked with predicts a turbulent April as all parties — pitchers, hitters
and umpires — adjust. Are you ready for this fun moment:
Bases
loaded … Shohei Ohtani at the plate … two outs and
a 3-2 count … Ohtani isn’t quite set and focused on the pitcher as the timer
count hits “7” … and some letter-of-the-law umpire screams: “Timer
violation … strike three … you’re out!”
Hoo
boy.
“I think MLB has been very upfront that they don’t want this
rule used in that way. They don’t want this rule deciding key moments of a
baseball game.” — a team executive on that scenario.
“I think it’s important for umpires to understand the spirit of
the law versus the letter of the law. And the umpires in the (Double-A)
Southern League have done a really good job of understanding that meaning.
They’re looking at the clock while looking at the pitcher, and they’re making
an assessment whether or not to stop the game for a second and assess a ball.
And if it’s at zero or minus-one, they’re letting it go. And they should,
because … stopping (the game to make a call) is going to go against the
entire spirit of the rule.” — Ensberg
Agreed.
But be ready. Even if everybody gets that spirit-of-the-rule memo, this will
get messy. Early in the season, before everyone settles in, there are going to
be shocking calls never witnessed in baseball history. There are going to be
ejections. There are going to be words uttered that you won’t hear on
Nickelodeon. There are going to be lots of sensational sports-talk-radio
moments. And also … there are going to be balks.
DOUBLE-A BALK RATE
2022 — One balk every 10.7 games
2021 — One balk every 20.5 games
Then
again, in other news …
3. Terrance Gore has never been more
employable
Terrance Gore steals second base against the Pirates on Sunday.
(Gregory Fisher / USA Today)
Will
the stolen base actually be cool again? Before you answer that, check out
what’s happened this year in the minor leagues.
Pickoff/stepoff
limits and larger bases (18 inches-by-18 inches square, up from 15-by-15) —
which shrink the distance between bases by 4 1/2 inches — have been in effect
all season. And they’ve turned these games into the Penn Relays.
STOLEN BASE ATTEMPTS PER GAME
Minor leagues — 2.83
Major leagues — 1.36
Now
here’s what that means: If big-league players suddenly started running at the
same rate as minor-league players have this year, it would lead to a
stolen-base attempt rate we haven’t seen in the major leagues in more
than 100 years. So is that going to happen?
Quick
answer: Of course not. As one exec I surveyed put it, “the cost of an out in
the big leagues is still going to be valued.”
But
also remember these rules aren’t just there to subtly encourage base stealing.
They’re there because this sport’s brightest minds see base stealing as one of
the centerpieces of the next wave of baseball’s entertainment strategy. So even
if these rules don’t roll back the clock to, say, 1917, here’s what MLB execs
do expect:
34 steals will never lead the league again! I’m guessing you could win this bar bet with
your buddies: Who leads the big leagues in stolen bases? It’s Marlins track
star Jon Berti (who else?) — with 34.
Meanwhile, in the minor leagues, 79 players have
stolen 34 or more, because thanks to these rules, stolen-base
success rates have skyrocketed (to 77 percent).
MLB
teams tend to run these days when they calculate at least a 75 percent
probability of making it. If that’s the new probability for, basically, everybody,
look out.
But it might take 70! Rickey Henderson’s 130 steals look as unreachable as ever, but
would anyone find it shocking to see somebody swipe 70 (for the first time in
14 years) next season? Again, don’t forget, these rules are designed to make
that eminently possible. As one exec put it, “I don’t think you’ll see any
records, but if someone steals 70 instead of 35, that’s a dramatic change.”
Some team might steal 250! In 1976, Bert Campaneris and those
fast-stepping Oakland A’s stole an incredible 341
bases. We won’t see that again. But as recently as 1992, Pat Listach’s Milwaukee
Brewers stole 256. Is that out of the question? Why would it
be?
The Rangers,
for example, have eight minor leaguers with at least 32 steals
this year. So why wouldn’t a team or two — or eight — decide
the best way to find an edge and wreak havoc next season is to start running at
rates no current big leaguers have ever had to find a defense for?
Terrance Gore forever! One more question: Shouldn’t teams start saving the last spot on
their roster for the fastest dude they can find — since these rules will make
it almost impossible to throw him out?
“If
we’re going to be mandated to have 13 position players, that 13th guy could be
a Terrance Gore,” one club exec said. “Then
every time one of your slow guys gets on base after the seventh inning, you
send in Terrance Gore to run. I think that makes a lot of sense.”
It’s
also a reminder that these rules will affect how front offices construct
rosters. More on that shortly. But first …
4. Coming to a park near you: the two-man
outfield?
One
theme that has come through loud and clear in the last week: Front offices are
already think-tanking ways to turn these new rules upside-down and devise
innovative strategies to use them to max advantage.
The
idea I’ve heard most so far? The four-man outfield may be going away — but say
hello to the “two-man” outfield.
All
right, so technically, it’s not really a two-man outfield. It’s just an
outfield with two defenders in conventional outfield locations — and a third
outfielder lurking in, say, short right field, where those shifting infielders
used to hang out against pull-heavy left-handed hitters. Here’s how MLB.com’s
Mike Petriello diagrammed that one.
… if you want to torment Joey Gallo, you can still torment Joey Gallo.
You just risk a lot more than a single if he goes to LF. pic.twitter.com/EMBvuXQjzd
—
Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) September 10, 2022
But
this idea isn’t just popping up on Twitter. It’s sweeping through front offices
and coaching staffs. Not everybody is convinced it will be widespread — or even
work effectively enough to become popular. But if 18 teams start using it
regularly, it definitely will be interesting to see how — or if — MLB reacts.
“MLB wants more triples, right? So in theory, if you’re hitting
against a two-man outfield, you’re going to find some triples in there just by
accident. So they may be OK with two-man outfields.” — one club exec
“You know what’ll happen if we see a lot of those two-man
outfields, right? Then they’ll just change that (rule) the following
year.” — another club exec
Are
there really enough Joey Gallos out there who hit so few balls the other way,
even in the air, that teams would go to that extreme? Seems doubtful. But you
know what isn’t doubtful? That we’re about to find out.
As
MLB consultant Theo Epstein said at the press conference announcing these
rules, “The smartest organizations are already thinking about how to react” —
to every one of these changes. No telling where that will lead. But in the
meantime …
5. Left-handed hitters shouldn’t party too
soon
That
sound you heard, off in the distance, after that press conference, was the
left-handed hitters of Planet Earth celebrating. And why would they be
celebrating? Pulled groundballs might actually be hits again!
Avg. on pulled
groundballs, LH hitters
|
YEAR |
BATTING AVERAGE |
LH SHIFTS |
|
2022 |
.146 |
56% |
|
2019 |
.156 |
42% |
|
2017 |
.189 |
22% |
*percentage
of plate appearances versus shifts
(Source: Statcast)
What
does that chart show us? In the 15 seasons Statcast has been tracking batted
balls, it has never been harder for a left-handed hitter to sneak a groundball
through the pull side than it is right now. At the same time, the shift rate on
those hitters has mushroomed. So is there any question about whether shifts
work? C’mon. They totally work.
The
data even shows they work no matter how hard these guys mash the ball. Check
out these numbers, also from Statcast, on the impact of the shift on batting
average on the hardest-hit groundballs (for all hitters).
|
100+ MPH |
110+ MPH |
|
|
Versus the shift |
.362 |
.442 |
|
No shift |
.445 |
.554 |
So
shifts are depressing averages, even on rockets, by about 100 points. I think
that explains why Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long
confidently told The Athletic this the other day:
“There are going to be guys where their average skyrockets. I
think Kyle Schwarber is going to be one of the biggest. Anthony Rizzo is going
to be another one. Brian McCann, when he played, would have been a huge one,
because those guys don’t run.”
Kyle Schwarber should be among those who benefit most from the
shift ban. (Brett Davis / USA Today)
So
there is going to be a subset of left-handed hitters whose average will climb
because the shift disappears — possibly as much as 40 points in some cases,
Long predicted. I don’t know why there’s anything wrong with that. Where’s the
rule that says the sport is more entertaining when Max Muncy hits .199? I can’t find that.
So
which left-handed hitters might fit into this subset? Sports Info Solutions
just looked into that question. Corey Seager ranked No. 1. And Schwarber
was way up there on the list.
But
before that crowd starts popping too many Moët & Chandon corks, I
need to break some news to these guys: The shift ban isn’t going to help as
much as they’re dreaming it will.
I wrote about this earlier this year. As long
as the shortstop can still play an inch to the other side of second base, and
the precision of modern data places second basemen where teams know these
hitters pull the ball most often, most groundballs will still be outs.
“The shortstop is still directly up the middle, and they’re
still taking hits away from left-handers. And on the other side, the second
basemen are taking hits away from right-handed hitters. … So the biggest impact
is that you don’t see the second baseman in right field.” — Ensberg
Bingo.
I asked Sports Info Solutions to dig into the effects of the minor-league shift
ban by examining what happened in Double A, where the data is most extensive.
As predicted by Ensberg, keeping two infielders on each side of the bag has had
minimal impact. But keeping infielders out of the outfield? Different story.
PCT. OF OUTS ON PULLED GROUNDBALLS/BUNTS BY LHH
2019 (last season before shift rules) — 69.3 percent
2022 (first full season of shift rules) — 64.4 percent
PCT. OF OUTS ON PULLED LINE DRIVES
2019 — 12.3 percent
2022 — 6.8 percent
(Source: Sports Info Solutions)
In
other words, when this rule was implemented, in Double A, it turned out to help
just one more groundball out of 20 get through the right side. For a guy like
Seager, who puts the ball on the ground an average of only 1.3 times per game,
that doesn’t even work out to two extra ground-ball hits a month.
But
let’s turn to the impact on pulled line drives. In the big leagues, they’re
still being gobbled up regularly by that extra infielder in the outfield. But
when that sneaky hit-burgling trick was outlawed in Double A, the rate of hits
on those line drives nearly doubled!
In
terms of total extra hits, we’re still talking about very few for any
individual hitter when spread out over a whole season. Still, it’s something.
“I think we will all agree hitters should be rewarded for line
drives. So if you’re hitting a really hard line drive to the pull side, you
should probably be rewarded for that. And if this new rule helps that, I think
that’s a good thing.” — one team exec
So
if the line-drive single is back, hey, cool. But what about the beloved single
up the middle? Well, I never enjoy being the bearer of unhappy news, but …
6. Still M.I.A.: The good old single up the
middle
In the piece I wrote about the shift earlier
this year, there was a Freddie Freeman quote that’s still stuck
in my brain:
“That rover in right field … it’s very rare that I hit one into
that shift. It’s just the one up the middle is the one that gets me. I’m like:
You’ve been taught your whole life to hit a line drive up the middle — and now
you’re out. … So maybe if they eliminate that, and they keep the shortstop on
the left side of the bag, I might get some more hits.”
Freddie,
I hate to hit you with this. But this particular shift limit isn’t going to
change your life much. Here’s the Double-A data, courtesy of Sports Info
Solutions.
PCT. OF OUTS ON GROUNDBALLS/BUNTS UP THE MIDDLE BY LHH
2019 — 66.1 percent
2022 — 64.2 percent
So
basically, about one of every 50 groundballs makes it into center field now
that didn’t before the shift was “banned.” Commissioner Rob Manfred often talks
about his passion to “restore” the single up the middle. Oops. This sure isn’t
going to do it.
“You do still see some balls get up the middle occasionally,
just due to positioning. But that’s usually more on the right-handed pull hitter,
versus the left-handed pull hitter.” — Ensberg
So
as we were saying — sorry Freddie! And in a related development …
7. Launch angle is still a thing
At
the press conference announcing these shift-rule changes, MLB’s Raul Ibañez,
former left-handed masher of yesteryear, mentioned something we all need to
stay dialed in on. The big hope here, he said, is that eliminating the
defensive traffic jam on one side of the infield will change more than just
batting averages.
Suppose
groundballs are hits again, he said. … Which means singles become more
attainable again. … Which means hitters might just realize they no longer need
to design a swing with a sole goal to lift the ball over all of those
infielders.
If
all of that happens, Ibañez hypothesized, maybe that’s enough incentive for
hitters to recalibrate those swings. Then, maybe launch angle won’t be quite as
hot a ticket anymore, he said, hopefully. Which could bring back the old
line-drive stroke that used to be the swing of every hitter’s dreams.
Hey,
what a beautiful thought. I hope it turns out that way. It’s just hard to look
at this shift rule — which mostly benefits pull-happy,
left-handed, turn-and-burn hitters — and expect any of that to happen.
“Do you know how much these guys are creatures of habit? I mean,
Schwarber’s not changing anything. He’s going to get more hits because the
field’s opened up. … But I don’t think that has anything to do with it. Are our
hitters going to change? No, they’re going to stay the same. … Like I’ve always
said, home run hitters are home run hitters.” — Long
So
what would have to happen to make that change? Maybe the big-league results
won’t match the minor-league data we just laid out. Or maybe there will be more
rules coming that alter the hitting climate more than these rules do. But is
Gallo going to look at this set of rules and decide it’s time
to try to win a batting title? Not happening.
But
you know who is going to have to make some changes? I’ll tell you who …
8. Relievers are in for a shock
Braves closer Kenley Jansen ranks second slowest in Statcast’s
pitch tempo. (Dale Zanine / USA Today)
The
one-inning, let-it-fly relief pitcher is one of the great gigs in the history of
baseball. But all of a sudden, trouble is ahead. And you spell that trouble:
C-L-O-C-K.
What’s
coming next year? A 15-second pitch clock with nobody on base. And how will
that affect the boys in the bullpen? Thanks for asking. The Statcast data
spells out exactly how.
According
to Statcast, among pitchers who have thrown at least 100 pitches in the big
leagues this season, there are 95 whose “tempo” (average time between pitches)
would be considered to be slower than that 15-second clock would allow. And of those 95, 89 are relievers.
So
their first challenge is they’re going to have to pick up that glacial pace.
But that’s not these relievers’ only challenge.
The
biggest question: If they no longer can take all the time they need in between
pitches, to recover from that 101 mph smokeball they just fired, will they be
able to throw the next pitch at 101 — and the one after that and the one after
that?
MLB’s
original hope was no. But the data doesn’t support that. Here was Ensberg’s
reply when I asked if his relievers had seen their velocity drop:
“No. Absolutely not. There was no decline in any sort of
performance. And arguably, the performance improved because of that tempo,
because of that rhythm.”
That
seems surprising. But it has turned out to be true, across the minor leagues.
We know that thanks to Baseball America, which recently obtained velocity
readings across minor-league baseball. Those readings showed zero drop in velo
— literally.
AVERAGE FOUR-SEAM FASTBALL VELOCITY, MINOR LEAGUES
2021 — 92.3 mph
2022 — 92.3 mph
So
for all those bullpen heat-wavers, it turns out this clock doesn’t pose a
velocity challenge, Ensberg said. It poses a conditioning challenge:
“This will change the way (relievers) train, because they’re
going to be throwing pitches quicker. So they’re going to want to have a little
bit more endurance than usual. Nothing crazy, but they’re going to be throwing
more pitches and doing more action, in a quicker amount of time. Their bodies
will adjust. But early on, they’re going to want to have some more stamina.”
In
fact, big-league execs I surveyed said they’re more concerned about whether
their starting pitchers can sustain velocity deep into games
than they are about their short relievers. So can anyone really be sure how
this clock will affect big-league pitchers — especially veterans who have never
experienced a clock in the minors? No, we can’t answer those questions until we
see what happens next year.
But
here’s one thing you can be sure of …
9. Wave goodbye to Mike Moustakas at second
base
It’s
easy to look at these rules and start digging into how they’ll affect games on
the field. But if you only hone in on that part, you’ll be missing one of the
biggest impacts of all:
This
has a chance to dramatically change how teams are built.
In
what ways, you ask? Here are two:
It’s a great time to be an athletic middle infielder. Let’s begin with another Epstein observation
from the press conference: What fans want, he said, is having games decided “by
diving plays” — not “by whose front office devised the best algorithm” to
position all their shifting infielders.
So
on that note, let’s talk about Mike Moustakas. Nothing personal. He just came
up over and over as the poster boy for second basemen you’ll never see again in
baseball.
“When you’re putting a roster together now, this is going to
impact how you view defense. I’ll use Mike Moustakas as an example. He’s played
a lot of second base, but he’s not a second baseman, He doesn’t have the foot
speed to play second base. But in a shift, he could do it.” — one club exec
Well,
not anymore. Teams are now going to rethink which positions they can sacrifice
defense for offense. And in a world without shifts, second base won’t be one of
those positions. I’d love to be an agent for an athletic free-agent middle
infielder this winter. That’s going to go well.
“When you put together your team now, you may have three
positions that are all about defense only – second base, shortstop and center
field.” — the same exec
It’s time to collect left-handed pull hitters. You know what has changed since these new
rules were announced? How front offices watch games every night. They now amuse
themselves by tracking all the outs that would be hits with no shift. And all
of a sudden, they have a newfound appreciation for left-handed mashers.
An
executive of one team told me about a left-handed hitting player in his system
who might not still be on the 40-man roster — but was kept around because the
new shift rule would change his value. Another exec brought up Matt Carpenter, a perfect example of a
left-handed pull hitter whose career was almost ended by the shift and now will
be looked at in a whole new light.
“I think there are guys who are going to add 15 to 20 points to
their average because of this. Matt Carpenter is one. Anthony Rizzo is another. Those are guys
whose average has just been brutalized by the shift. But now I can see guys
like that having much greater value, because they do hit the ball the other way
in the air. They just hit most of their groundballs to the right side. And the
shift has turned them all into outs.” — one longtime exec
So
who knows — in future years, players like that could add even more value. And
why would that be? Because …
10. The shift rules might keep shifting
Commissioner Rob Manfred said the competition committee will
continue to evaluate the rules. (Brad Penner / USA Today)
Remember
the early days of replay in baseball? MLB’s replay point guard, the Braves’
John Schuerholz, talked often then about how baseball should and shouldn’t
implement major rule changes. You should keep that in mind at times like this.
What not to do: Fire up your new rule, assume you nailed it,
then forget about it and move on to something else.
What to do: Implement your rule. Watch carefully. Then
tweak it over the next few years until you get it right.
I
still hear people in baseball quote that philosophy all the time. So that tells
me something: Why would we think the same thing can’t happen again? Why would
we think these will be the last rules MLB will ever install to neutralize the
shift? Here are two I suspect we could see someday:
Into the deep: So now there’s a rule designed to add hits and action by telling
infielders where they can and can’t stand. Why wouldn’t the next shoe drop? Why
not a future rule that tells outfielders where they can and
can’t stand?
Do
you recall that two-man outfield experiment we talked about earlier? Suppose
that works. Suppose it turns into a regular thing. Why wouldn’t baseball react
with a rule that shuts that trick down? Could happen.
Also
remember that MLB’s fan polling shows that the customers love doubles and
triples, which have dropped to levels not seen in 50 years. Why wouldn’t
baseball consider a rule requiring outfielders to play shallow again, so all
those gappers would stop landing in outfielders’ mitts? MLB has tried that out,
in extended spring training. So anything is possible.
Pie, anyone? Manfred wants to bring back the single up the middle, huh? That
can be arranged. Remember, baseball started experimenting with a rule to do
exactly that in the minor leagues this year.
It’s the Pie Slice Rule — a big, wedge-shaped
diagonal line drawn in the infield dirt, which forces the second baseman and
shortstop to leave the middle of the field open. They’ve tried it, and it
works. And back in the minor-league test lab, that one has a lot of fans.
“They need to add that rule, because that’s the most important
one.” — Ensberg
Of
course, it was complicated enough to get these rules written
and implemented. The next wave figures to be just as complicated. Maybe more.
But
Manfred made it clear at that press conference. The competition committee that
drew up these rules isn’t closing up shop. It’s open for business indefinitely,
he said — for “an ongoing review process of the way we’re playing.”
So
change is coming — after which, well, more change is coming. And you know what
that means.
